I am eagerly awaiting the outcome of the lok sabha elections in Bihar, 2009. No I am not being parochial confining my interest to Bihar, but yes, being from the state and especially been witness to Laloo's misrule, I do want to see what people of Bihar choose to do this time, as it does not concern the state directly, but would have significant impact on government formation at the center. My own analysis after seeing the results of Delhi elections, is that people will vote for Nitish Kumar i.e. development, and Nitish alone, as the general perception is (and mind you voting is all about perception) that Nitish has delivered in a significant way, be it creation of better roads or bringing down blatant crimes like kidnapping.
Most of the people I have talked to across segment from landlords to business men to men-on-the-street like rickshaw pullers, the mandate seems clear they all have praise for Nitish, and each section seem to have have got some visible positive takeaway from this regime.
It would be difficult for leaders and parties to pander to the prejudices of the people in terms of caste and creed, I don't see the voters of Bihar falling into the trap of mealy mouthed platitudes of the leaders. In general there is a feeling to give Nitish full mandate and test him out, no one is taking Nitish to be infallible, but people want to give him a chance and see him significantly fail than stand on judgement based on small hiccups.
My own predictions-- Nitish (JD U & BJP combine) will wrest more than 80 % of the Lok sabha seats, and I keep my fingers crossed as like in "Forest" in politics you never know what will come out next, nor I consider myself to be a political pundit.
But, my own logic based on small sample population says that Nitish will be the clear winner.